🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the current field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still